Update on US-Venezuela relations

The capture of President Maduro comes after months of mounting pressure on Maduro's government amid deteriorating US-Venezuela relations. In the last months of 2025, this manifested in a new round of sanctions against persons, companies and vessels with links to Venezuela's oil sector and targeted attacks off Venezuela's coast. 

From escalating sanctions pressure … 

While Venezuela has been under sanctions for several years and the steady deterioration in US-Venezuela relations can be traced back to Hugo Chavez's first ascent to power in 1999, 2019 marks a significant change in the intensity of the sanctions. In response to the re-election of President Maduro in 2018, the United States imposed a full oil embargo and blocked all of the government's assets. 

The struggling oil industry received some relief with the electoral roadmap introduced in 2023 leading up to the presidential election (discussed in our alert here), but sanctions were re-imposed when President Maduro claimed victory in the summer of 2024. 

Since then, the United States has steadily increased pressure on Venezuela, including several actions during December 2025:

• On 11 December 2025, the United States designated three nephews of Venezuelan First Lady Cilia Flores and Panamanian business man Roberto Carretero, as well as six shipping companies and associated vessels operating in the Venezuelan oil sector cited to "provide financial resources that fuel Maduro's corrupt narco-terrorist regime" under the Venezuela and narcotics trafficking and sanctions programme.
• On 19 December 2025, additional members of the Maduro-Flores family were designated as well as family members of Mr Carretero.
• On 31 December 2025, OFAC designated an additional four shipping companies and associated vessels operating in the oil sector in Venezuela. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent expressed that "President Trump has been clear: We will not allow the illegitimate Maduro regime to profit from exporting oil while it floods the United States with deadly drugs".

… to military intervention

On 3 January 2026, the United States launched a surprise military operation in and around Venezuela's capital Caracas. In a statement on Truth Social, President Donald Trump announced that the United States had "carried out a large scale strike against Venezuela" and that President Maduro, together with First Lady Cilia Flores, had been captured and transferred out of the country. President Maduro now faces criminal charges in the United States related to narcoterrorism and drug trafficking, based on a longstanding indictment issued by the US Department of Justice. 

The intervention represents the culmination of escalating military activity in the region since September 2025, including maritime interdiction operations, asset seizures and strikes on Venezuelan territory.  

President Trump has indicated that further military action may follow if resistance emerges, initially warning of a "second, bigger wave" of operations. In later statements, President Trump has "cancelled" the second wave due to Venezuela's reported cooperation with the US' agenda. 

What's next? 

Many questions remain unanswered going forward. In a global context, the US intervention gives rise to fundamental questions of international law and geopolitical precedent. 

US sanctions on Venezuela remain in force for the time being, and continue to cover the country's government and several Venezuelan officials, including acting President Delcy Rodríguez, the national oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA), individuals and entities operating in the oil sector, and the Venezuelan "dark fleet", to name a few. 

Sanctions relief is, however, likely on the horizon to facilitate oil sales and investments, and could be put into effect as early as this week, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tells Reuters. President Trump has already announced a US-Venezuela deal to sell 30 to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil and is appealing to US oil corporations to invest in the country's oil sector. On 9 January, President Trump also issued an Executive Order to prevent courts from seizing Venezuelan oil revenue held in US accounts in order to ensure these funds are preserved to "advance US foreign policy objectives". 

Following the capture of President Maduro, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez was sworn in as interim president of Venezuela. President Trump has, however, made clear the intentions of the United States to "run" Venezuela until further notice, also noting that the acting Venezuelan President Rodríguez is willing to do what the US considers "necessary". Acting President Rodríguez has, on the other hand, stated that no foreign agents govern Venezuela, according to Al Jazeera, although she has later struck a more conciliatory tone, inviting the US government to "collaborate on an agenda of cooperation". Statements by US Secretary of State of State Marco Rubio suggest that the US will utilise the existing sanctions to encourage policy shifts in Venezuela. Further adding to the uncertainty, President Trump posted what seems to be a screenshot from a Wikipedia page naming him as the acting President of Venezuela on Truth Social on 12 January 2026.   

Key considerations for operators 

As the situation remains unclear and develops on a day-to-day basis, operators are encouraged to exercise caution with respect to contemplated operations in Venezuela (including in or around Venezuelan waters): 

• While we anticipate sanctions relief, we reiterate that existing US sanctions remain in force, while the scope and nature of any such relief remains unclear. Notably, as recently as 7 and 9 January, the US seized additional shadow fleet tankers in international waters with alleged links to Venezuelan oil operations, suggesting increased enforcement of the announced blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers going into, and out of, Venezuela.
• Other countries and international bodies also maintain economic sanctions against Venezuela, although not as far-reaching as the existing US sanctions. Sales and procurement teams should be advised to seek legal advice prior to entering into new contracts with Venezuelan exposure.
• Heightened security risks should be at the forefront when considering Venezuelan business, noting President Trump's warning of a "second wave" (albeit later called off) and general political instability as the nature of the country's leadership going forward remains unclear. The US has also launched lethal attacks in international waters around Venezuela throughout the second half of 2025, and targeted land-based facilities alleged to be involved in illegal drug trafficking.
• We strongly recommend awaiting further developments and obtaining legal advice before making strategic decisions relating to Venezuela, as the political and security situation remains highly uncertain.